2010 was a year that we may be look on as a real turning point for mobile technology. I say "may" because it seems like every year gives us the sense that changes are happening more rapidly. This year saw huge growth in smartphone subscribers, variety of experiences, and the introduction of a new product category.
Top Mobile Stories of 2010
1a. The iPad
Although Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently dismissed the iPad as "not mobile," the reality is that most people would not agree. While a laptop of even a netback may strain credibility in being considered mobile, the iPad was the first in a new wave of tablets that bear no resemblance to the Tablet PC's pushed by Microsoft in the early part of the decade. The iPad was derided as "just a big iPhone" when Apple introduced it in January, but it's proven to be the right model for this type of device. Instead of Microsoft's concept of a full desktop operating system, complete with Intel processors and a stylus-driven resistive touchscreen, Apple had the foresight to use their entire mobile approach. This meant a capacitive screen, basically the same OS as the iPhone in iOS, and processor architecture that was no different than what the best smartphones were using. The result was a thin, fully enclosed device that never gets hot and had no fixed orientation.
By year's end, the iPad will have sold over 10 million units. Small numbers compared to smartphone sales, but huge for a market that didn't exist before the iPad. For whatever criticisms Apple may have received for making it so similar to the iPhone, the success of that approach is reflected in the response by competitors. Tablets running Android on ARM processors finally started to roll out at the end of the year with the Galaxy Tab as the main competition for Apple. We will have to wait just a little over a week to discover exactly what Google is planning for their official tablet OS, but it's certain to bear a bit of resemblance to the iPad by running their Android operating system and being powered by mobile processors. If tablets do eat into laptop sales over time, it will be the ultimate reflection of the growing trend of mobile technology assuming more and more of the tasks traditionally associated only with desktop PCs.
1b. The Android Invasion
The Android assault on the industry actually began at the end of 2009 with the introduction of the first credible and terrifyingly marketed "Droid Does" campaign on Verizon. Prior to the Motorola Droid and Verizon's major push, Android's growth had been rathe unimpressive. Mainstream consumers didn't have any idea it existed, and the best phones were on T-Mobile and Sprint in the U.S. I say "best," but they were hugely underpowered and offered a far inferior experience to the iPhone or even the Palm Pre, released earlier that summer. All of this changed when the Droid was released, bringing the first high-end hardware and the vastly-improved Android 2.0 with it. The Droid immediately became a hit as an iPhone alternative on Verizon, setting the stage for the Android explosion in 2010.
Right out of the gate, Android gained momentum in January with the release of Google's own Nexus One. While the Droid may have been the first high-end Android phone, Google had no problem overshadowing it just a few months later with the Nexus One, a phone designed to raise the level of Android hardware and become Google's flagship developer phone. The Nexus One was the first Android handset to feature a 1GHz Snapdragon processor and 512 MB of RAM, specs that were almost laughably high-end at its release. While the Nexus One was not a commercial success being sold through Google's online store, it did serve as a harbinger for the pace of innovation Android would see over the course of the year.
Indeed, 2010 was a year in which people first had to get used to the idea of Android handsets one-upping one another as the year went on. Following the Nexus One in January, the market saw the release of the HTC Droid Incredible, HTC Evo, the Samsung Galaxy S line, the Droid X, the Droid 2, the Droid Pro, the G2, the MyTouch 4G, and finally the Nexus S. In between, it seemed as if every phone low-end to high-end was running Android. By the end of the year, Android had gone from largely irrelevant to second place in worldwide smartphone marketshare. 2011 is sure to see similar or greater growth, but this was the year Android came into its own and established itself.
2. U.S. wireless carriers introduce tiered-data plans
After AT&T began offering true unlimited data plans to 3G iPad users, they must have felt just how much data devices with Netflix were going to require. Not long after their generous $30 unlimited plans debuted, AT&T did away with them entirely, revamping their entire line of data offerings. Instead of $30 for unlimited data (5 GB in the fine print), AT&T now offers 2 GB for $25 and 200 MB for $15. Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile soon followed, offering cheaper plans but with similar data restrictions at the high end. Sprint has yet to follow suit, but they are already offering a tiered plan of sorts, mandating an extra $10 for 4G -enabled devices ion top of their usually-affordable $69.99 Simply-Everything plan. This trend is going to have two long-term ramifications:
- With cheaper data plans available, entering the smartphone market will now be more of a possibility for lower-income families, setting the stage for smartphones to become the norm in cell phones.
- With 4G networks on the horizon for all carriers, the elimination of unlimited plans will enable carriers to maintain control over their users. This will only serve to prevent users from taking full advantage of these new high-speed networks and could set the stage for potential abuses. Net neutrality will become an issue if carriers try to make their own services exempt from data caps.
While cheaper price-points are a welcome sign for some consumers, consider this the opposite of AOL opening up unlimited online use in the 90s and likely to stifle innovation going forward.
3. Microsoft starts a comeback bid
Microsoft released Windows Phone 7, a complete reinvention of its mobile strategy and ecosystem. The platform isn't entirely competitive right now given all of the holes that need to be filled feature-wise, but they clearly have a solid base with which to regain lost marketshare. A strong presence in mobile is crucial to the future success of Microsoft, so expect them to push this OS harder and harder as time goes on.
4. The reshaping of the mobile power players
The big players in the mobile industry are starting to look more and more like the big players in the traditional computer and web markets. Apple and Google are locked in a battle for number 1, while Nokia, RIM, and Palm are fading from relevance. Microsoft has fallen away but is coming back, and if Palm returns to prominence it will be under HP's name and ownership.
5. It's an app world afterall
After years of assumption that everything would be moving to the cloud and utilizing websites, the app model popularized by Apple and continued with Android is starting to look like a long-term future of the web, rather than a temporary stopgap on the way to a full web model. The iPad is the first in what will be a string of casual, embedded devices for ordinary people in their homes. While Google sees the web as the complete future, ask yourself this question: What's more likely to appeal to the masses, web browsers on a variety of devices in the home, or app launchers? Apps are clearly the front-end solution for average consumers, while the web will serve a back-end and universal, lowest common denominator function. Who would have thought that was the future of the web just a few years ago?